Can SNAP’s Stock Recover After Falling 90% from Its Peak? Risk vs Opportunity in 2025-2026 – Valuation, User growth, Ad revenues
Snap stock crashed recently about 90%! Watching Snap’s stock plummet from its highs has been a brutal ride for anyone who invested. It’s the kind of chart that makes you wince. I look at it and see a graveyard of hype. But as a bit of a market contrarian, I also have to ask the uncomfortable question: Is there a glimmer of hope buried deep in the wreckage?
Everyone’s writing Snap’s obituary. But what if the story for 2025 and 2026 isn’t about a funeral, but a painful, messy rehab? Let’s dive in, not with cold, robotic data, but with a real look at what it would take for this company to walk again.
Snap Stock Crashed: A Bargain or a Bottomless Pit?
On paper, Snap looks like a fire sale. Its valuation is a shadow of what it once was. It’s tempting to think, “How much lower can it go?” I’ve learned the hard way that a falling knife has no handle. The real risk isn’t the price tag; it’s whether the business itself is broken. For Snap to be a true bargain, it needs to prove it can stop the bleeding and make a real profit, consistently. Until then, that cheap sticker price is a warning, not a welcome mat.
The User Dilemma: Where Did All the Cool Kids Go?
Snapchat’s core audience—teens and young adults—used to be its crown jewel. That’s where the energy was. But lately, it feels like the party moved to TikTok. Sure, Snap still has hundreds of millions of daily users, which is nothing to sneeze at. But the growth has stalled in the places that matter most to advertisers (read: North America and Europe).
The billion-dollar question is: Can Snap make its app feel essential again? It’s not just about adding another AR filter. It’s about creating a reason for people to open Snapchat first, not just when they’re bored. They need to win back not just users, but attention.
The Ad Money Problem: Can They Fix the Engine?
Here’s Snap’s Achilles’ heel: almost all its money comes from ads. And the ad world has been turned upside down. Apple’s privacy changes hit Snap like a ton of bricks, making it harder for advertisers to see if their campaigns actually work. When advertisers get skeptical, they pull their budgets.
So, what’s the path forward? Snap has to convince businesses that they get a better bang for their buck on Snapchat than on Instagram or TikTok. This is where their crazy-good augmented reality tech could be a game-changer. Imagine trying on sunglasses or seeing how a new sofa looks in your living room, right through the app. That is a compelling reason for an advertiser to write a check.
The Turnaround Dream: A Glimpse of What Could Be
Let’s paint a picture of a successful Snap comeback in 2025. It doesn’t mean the stock is soaring back to its insane peak. Let’s be realistic.
A win looks like this:
- They stop burning cash. Seriously. Profitability is the new growth metric they need to hit.
- They become the AR king. They stop being just a messaging app and become the go-to platform for immersive shopping and experiences. Launched their new OS 2.0 AR Glasses
- They embrace being a powerhouse niche player. Maybe they’ll never be as big as Facebook, and that’s okay. They can thrive by being the best place to reach a young, engaged audience.
My Final Take: So, Is It a Bet Worth Making?
Look, investing in Snap today is not for the faint of heart. It’s a rollercoaster that’s currently parked near the bottom. The risks are massive—they could fumble their last chance and fade into obscurity.
But the opportunity?
It’s there, too. A bet on a team executing a perfect Hail Mary. And a belief that they can leverage their unique technology in a way no one else can.
For me, personally? I’m watching from the sidelines for now. I need to see concrete signs of that turnaround—not just promises—before I’d even consider it. But I’ll definitely be keeping one eye on them in 2025. The story isn’t over yet.